San Ramon Earthquake Forecast

Last Event: 2026-02-15 17:32:29 PST | Generated: 2026-02-16 02:50:14 PST | Elapsed: 9.30h

Immediate Risk (Next 24h): LOW (5.0%)

Seismic activity frequency is within normal limits.

Short-Term Trend (24h - 48h)

Forecasts below 24h are suppressed due to high model variance (MAE > 100h). Use Swarm Risk for immediate alerts.

Threshold24h48h
Mag ≥ 29.0%22.0%
Mag ≥ 30.0%2.0%
Mag ≥ 40.0%0.0%
Mag ≥ 50.0%0.0%

Long-Term Probabilities

Threshold4 Days7 Days14 Days30 Days
Mag ≥ 236.0%56.0%81.0%89.0%
Mag ≥ 33.0%5.0%10.0%18.0%
Mag ≥ 40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mag ≥ 50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Visualizations

Reference Maps & History

Model Validation Report

Methodology: Models trained on first 80% of history, tested on last 20%.

Test Period: 2017-09-28 to 2026-02-16

1. Swarm Classification Performance

MetricScore
Accuracy87.5%
F1-Score (Swarm Class)0.78

2. Time-to-Event Regression Error (MAE)

MAE measures the average error in hours. Lower is better.
Note: "Swarm MAE" is naturally lower because events happen frequently (minutes apart).

Target Global MAE Swarm Only MAE Quiet MAE Swarm Count / Total
Mag ≥ 2 128.2 h 58.3h 169.4h 699 / 1888
Mag ≥ 3 157.4 h 127.0h 196.1h 491 / 877
Mag ≥ 4 158.2 h 109.8h 214.1h 74 / 138